Stress-test your retirement portfolio with 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Success rates, percentile outcomes, and side-by-side strategy comparisons — all below.
Bands show the range of outcomes across 1,000 simulations. Strategy: Fixed (4% Rule).
All three strategies run with the same starting portfolio and withdrawal amount.
The Trinity Study (1998, updated 2011) found that a 4% withdrawal rate from a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio had a 95%+ success rate over 30-year periods using US historical data from 1925–2009.
For FIRE with longer time horizons (40–60 years), many researchers recommend a 3–3.5% withdrawal rate to account for longer sequence-of-returns risk.
Variable strategies like Guardrails and Variable Percentage Withdrawal tend to outperform fixed strategies in Monte Carlo simulations because they reduce spending during poor market conditions — at the cost of income predictability.
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Hold your retirement portfolio at a custodian with best-in-class index funds and reliable withdrawal tools.
Why we recommend it: Low fees in accumulation mean more to withdraw in retirement.
A 1–2 year cash buffer in a HYSA lets you avoid selling during downturns — the #1 sequence-of-returns risk reducer.
Why we recommend it: Guardrails strategies work better with liquid reserves.
Model Roth conversions and tax-gain harvesting to minimize taxes on your withdrawals.
Why we recommend it: Tax efficiency can add years of longevity to any withdrawal strategy.
It runs your withdrawal plan through thousands of random market scenarios (based on historical return distributions) to estimate the probability your money lasts through retirement.
Most financial planners suggest 90–95%. Below 80% means significant risk of running out of money. Above 95% may mean you’re being too conservative and could enjoy more of your wealth.
There is no single best strategy. Fixed withdrawal (4% rule) is simplest. Variable strategies like guardrails adapt to market conditions and generally have higher success rates but less predictable income.
Paste the snippet below onto any page, blog post, or docs site. The calculator renders inline, works on mobile, and links back to The FIRE Pathway at the bottom. No account, no API key, no ads inside the iframe.
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This simulator is for educational and informational purposes only. Monte Carlo simulations are probabilistic models with significant limitations. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results. This does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a qualified financial professional (CFP or RIA) before making retirement planning decisions. Read our full disclaimer.